Is Israel winning its war on Gaza?

Various labels have been coined to describe the current conflagration in Gaza, but military spokespeople and politicians have declared it a war. Recently, media coverage has shifted onto Israel’s latest redeployment of troops out of Northern Gaza into the South – the centre of the besieged territory. So after more than 100 days of war, we should ask ourselves: Is Israel winning?

This question is important because Israeli military action and operations throughout this conflict have spilled out onto social media. Harrowing scenes of murder and killing, censored graphic content, can be seen with a cursory swipe on social media. We can judge for ourselves because the mainstream media is overly biased in favour of Israel.  But in any conflict, just like in the Ukraine conflict while the fog of war prevails then propaganda will blur the truth. Only time will tell who the victor truly is and what was the true scale of devastation that victory wrought and the unimaginable loss of innocent life. 

Is it a victory to completely raze to the ground everything and everyone in Gaza? Israel has made its objectives clear: the destruction of Hamas, namely its military infrastructure and capabilities; the long term and guaranteed safety of security of Israel; a new governing power in Gaza; and the rescue of Israeli hostages. Hollywood likes to depict hostage scenarios as full of tension and suspense, maybe even a negotiator gets involved before the good guys (and big guns) come out. Israeli forces show us a stark reality: carpet bombing entire neighbourhoods, brutalising young children, and firing and killing hostages carrying a white flag because they “could have been terrorists.” 

According to Hamas, the “proscribed” terrorist organisation, which many see as a freedom and liberation movement, its brigades are still fighting fit. Hamas are suffering very few casualties, and continuing in their capacity to strike Israel’s military. Since World War 2, America has granted over $260 billion in mostly military aid to Israel and continues to do so in this war of attrition.

Despite the ongoing flow of American dollars, bombs and bullets, research organisations like the Institute for the Study of War have commented that Israel has merely degraded but not incapacitated Hamas or its military wing.

 How safe can Israel truly feel when its opponent is still deadly and effective? Many Zionists decry these “terrorists” who deny Israel the right to exist. Israel faces a difficult hurdle when its objectives align with denying Palestinians the right to self-determination. However, some Muslim political commentators see this as a ploy to deny Palestinian agency in this asymmetric war. Sami Hamdi, chief editor of The International Interest, has stated since the outbreak of the war, that Hamas is active alongside other Palestinian groups.  Despite Iran having some level of involvement on a logistical level; it is the Palestinians who are fighting this war.  

Freedom is a luxury for some. People from many countries have seen what war and conflict can do to  entire cities  and populations. Generally they wouldn’t wish it on anyone.  Humanity’s collective conscience gravitates to this natural sense of justice. So, despite Israel’s proclaimed objectives, their brutal methods have rallied together many different countries and people of the world and culminated in a very robust and methodical charge of genocide levied by South Africa. South Africa is a country that has lived through Apartheid hence they empathise with the Palestinians. Racial discrimination as a policy was perfectly legal until it was abolished in South Africa and now is a reminder of a  historic tragedy. However, history is still to judge Israel’s current policies during this  incendiary war.

 Israel claims to have eliminated some of Hamas’ senior commanders and has now started to scale down its operations in Northern Gaza as part of its purported war objectives. But even if we take these claims at face value, that doesn’t chime with their overall objectives to destroy Hamas militarily and remove them from power. In statements, Hamas have stated that they operate in a manner whereby deputies are trained to replace their field commanders instantly. They have fluidity in their chain of command. This may hinder coordinated attacks on a large scale and perhaps another October 7 cannot occur again in the near future. In the conflict zone of Gaza today, Israel faces stauch opposition despite its ongoing and nefarious clearing operations. 

Israel continues to stage these genocidal clearing operations and pounds Gaza everyday with more destructive firepower in total than than the nuclear bombs used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Israel makes its case across all major platforms that it will be victorious.

However Israel is not winning this war nor is it making an effective case for arguing that  it is winning. Fighters from all sections of the Palestinian forces continue to organise, target and combat Israel’s murderous campaign. They do so without the support of major international state actors. Global public sentiment is turning against Israel in a way never seen before in its history. Israel highlights its ability to precisely eliminate senior members of Hamas but in contrast it deliberately bombs the Gazan masses indiscriminately. Such inhumane action does not entail even a meaningless victory but rather only senseless violence. In reality, occupying Palestinian land has become Israel’s “forever war.” The Palestinians are suffering and their trauma will be long lasting and difficult to overcome, but their incremental victories assure their place in history as heroes and legends. Palestine will be free.